US-Israel strikes on Iran disrupt global oil, boost Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery as African lifeline
Abdullatteef Fowewe
Escalating US-Israel airstrikes on Iran since ending February 2026 have slashed nearly 20% of global crude supply, driving oil prices above $100 per barrel and sparking fuel shortages across Africa, according to a new Al Jazeera report.
The report reveals how nations like Ghana, Kenya, and South Africa – long dependent on Middle Eastern imports – have turned to Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery as a critical backstop.
Operating at full capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, the refinery has exported 456,000 tonnes of refined products to five African countries in recent weeks, helping avert blackouts and transport chaos.
Yet Dangote prioritises its home market, reserving 75% of output for Nigeria’s domestic needs.
“We’re stretched thin,” a refinery spokesperson told Al Jazeera.
“Without steady local crude, we can’t scale up for the region.”
The crisis underscores Africa’s vulnerability to Middle East turmoil but could spark a shift toward intra-continental energy trade.
Dailyeconomy exclusive gathered that South Africa is negotiating a 12-month supply deal with Dangote, eyeing long-term stability.
Experts caution, however, that prolonged conflict risks backfiring on Nigeria itself.
“If global prices stay high, Nigeria might flip from exporter to importer, fueling inflation and subsidy strains,” said energy analyst Dr. Fatima Bello of the African Energy Institute.
As strikes continue into late March, African leaders urge de-escalation while quietly ramping up regional pacts to insulate against future shocks.
