The refinery debate is not about Dangote. It is about Nigeria

By Mohammed Kari (Wazirin Bauchi)

For weeks, I watched the debate over the Dangote refinery and fuel import licences from the sidelines.

Then every day I see another headline about ships arriving with imported petrol, fertilizer, and countless other products. It left me asking a simple but troubling question: *what exactly do we still produce for ourselves?*

At a time when a Nigerian investor has committed about US$20 billion to solving a problem government failed to solve for decades, why are we still debating how to preserve an import-dependent system?

This article is not really about Dangote. It is about Nigeria. It is about whether we want to remain a nation that consumes what others produce or become a nation that produces what it consumes.

*A Nation at a crossroads*

Nothing illustrates Nigeria’s economic dilemma better than the story of its government-owned refineries. For decades, billions were spent on refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna, yet they consistently failed to meet domestic fuel demand. More than ₦11.35 trillion was reportedly spent on maintenance and rehabilitation, while refinery performance remained poor.

At an exchange rate of about ₦500 to the dollar, (the rate when this government was sworn in 2023), that amounts to roughly US$22.7 billion, more than the estimated cost of the Dangote refinery itself. In effect, Nigeria spent enough trying to rehabilitate ageing refineries to finance a brand-new world-scale refinery.

The result was a painful contradiction: Nigeria became one of the world’s largest crude oil producers while importing much of the petrol it consumed. We exported crude, paid others to refine it, and then used scarce foreign exchange to buy it back.

It is against this backdrop that the Dangote refinery emerged.

*From Trading to Industrialization*

Aliko Dangote’s significance lies not merely in his wealth but in his decision to invest in production rather than importation.

His investments in cement, sugar and fertilizer helped Nigeria move closer to self-sufficiency, created jobs, expanded industrial capacity, and opened export opportunities.

These investments retained value within the Nigerian economy instead of exporting that value abroad.

*The Refinery and economic reset*

The Dangote refinery, with a capacity of about 650,000 barrels per day, is the largest expression of this industrial philosophy.

For decades, foreign economies captured much of the value from refining Nigerian crude oil. The refinery seeks to reverse that pattern by ensuring that more of the petroleum value chain remains in Nigeria.

This is about far more than fuel. It is about jobs, industrial capability, economic sovereignty, and national self-sufficiency.

*How the Refinery reduces foreign exchange losses*

For years, Nigeria exported crude oil but spent scarce dollars importing refined products made from that same crude.

By refining locally, more value remains within the country, supporting jobs, taxes, suppliers, and domestic businesses. Reduced import dependence also means less pressure on foreign exchange reserves and fewer dollars leaving the economy.

*Why import substitution matters*

The refinery is an example of import substitution: producing locally what was previously imported.

Domestic production creates jobs, develops skills, strengthens supply chains, increases tax revenues, and expands economic output. Once local demand is met, surplus production can be exported to earn foreign exchange.

This is how successful economies develop. They produce, add value, and export.

*Addressing the Competition Argument*

Critics argue that Dangote’s growing influence could reduce competition.

Competition is important, but the real question is what kind of competition Nigeria should encourage.

There is a difference between investors competing by building refineries and factories and businesses competing by importing products made elsewhere. One expands productive capacity; the other largely distributes what others have produced.

The answer to industrial dominance should be more production, not more dependence.

*Economic Patriotism and the question of National interest*

No country has industrialized by preferring imports to local production when it has the ability to produce for itself.

If foreign interests oppose Nigerian self-sufficiency, their motives are understandable. They benefit from Nigeria remaining a market for their products. The more important question is why some Nigerian local interests appear comfortable defending an economic model that has left Nigeria dependent for decades.

The government, too, cannot afford to be indifferent. Every successful industrial nation deliberately supported domestic production, value addition, and strategic industries.

If a Nigerian investor commits US$20 billion to solving a national problem that governments failed to solve for decades, the least one should expect is a policy environment that encourages production and rewards productive investment.

The real question is not whether Nigerians should compete with Dangote. It is how they should compete.

*Policy Recommendations for an Industrial Nigeria*

Nigeria should make production more rewarding than importation.
This requires:

• A clear industrialization policy.
• Incentives for manufacturers and productive investors.
• Stable regulations and predictable policies.
• Better infrastructure, power, transportation, and logistics.
• More refineries, factories, and processing plants.

The solution to dependence is production, not more dependence.

*The Power of Consumers and why they should organize*

One stakeholder is often overlooked in this debate: the consumer.

Businesses organize. Importers organize. Lobbyists organize. Yet consumers, despite their enormous collective power, often remain passive.

Every purchase is an economic vote. Every naira spent helps determine which businesses grow and which economic model succeeds.

The larger question is not whether Nigerians should support Aliko Dangote as an individual. The real question is whether Nigerians should support industrialization, productive investment, and national transformation.

The question before Nigeria is no longer whether we can industrialize. A Nigerian has already invested about US$20 billion to prove that we can.

And let us be clear: whatever happens, Dangote is unlikely to be the loser. His products can find markets across Africa and around the world. The real loser, if we choose wrongly, will be Nigeria and Nigerians.

Consumers are far more powerful than they often realize. When they act together, they can influence markets, determine government policy and shape corporate behaviour. Organizing does not require protests or confrontation. It begins with informed choices: supporting businesses that manufacture locally, create jobs, invest in production, and retain value within Nigeria.

Professional associations, labour unions, student bodies, community organizations, and civil society groups can help amplify that message and promote a culture that celebrates production over dependency.

The choice is simple: *continue importing prosperity from others or begin creating it for ourselves.*

*History will remember which path we chose.*